Lucky Fridays

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“Prediction markets have branded themselves as legal and safe, but the reality is they are not adhering to Connecticut’s consumer protection standards,” Lamont wrote in a statement.

While such orders have become customary around the nation this year, Connecticut’s missive took it one step further. The department also issued nearly 30 subpoenas to licensed gaming service providers and a bevy of media outlets. Those issued subpoenas include ones served to PayPal, Sportradar Solutions and Plaid, a payment processing app that holds a gaming licence. Although those companies are not under investigation, the subpoenas appear to be the first against service providers that conduct business with prediction markets in some form.

– In the wake of a consequential ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit against Kalshi, two operators are taking separate paths in an effort to overturn the decision. On 28 August, the Ninth Circuit ruled in a 3-0 decision that sports event contracts do not qualify as federally regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Earlier this week, Kalshi filed for an en banc re-hearing with the Ninth Circuit, this time before an 11-judge review. Robinhood, meanwhile, filed a petition of certiorari with the Supreme Court in a move to effectively bypass the Ninth Circuit. It is widely believed that a circuit split between the Ninth Circuit and a separate decision by the Third Circuit will prompt the Supreme Court to take up the case.

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Yashin points particularly to comparisons with crash games, whose similarly short rounds make them a natural benchmark. A Swipe Games round lasts around eight to 10 seconds, but player behaviour can be markedly different.

Across markets in Latin America, Europe and Asia, Yashin says the average stakes for swipe games display a pattern closer to sports betting than crash gaming. In one market, the average Swipe Games bet was 20 times higher than the average crash-game bet with the same operator.

Retention has provided another encouraging signal. Depending on the market, Yashin says day-one, day-seven and day-30 retention can range from around the crash-game benchmark to between five and 10 times higher. The number of rounds played during a session can also be significantly greater.

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