Aztec Emerald

About Aztec Emerald

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.

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This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.

“It’s not a dark alley,” he continues. “It’s a large operator that’s regulated in other places, so it’s not the risk for the player that sometimes is implied.”

With the central challenge of tax to compete with, operators face a test of whether they can maintain growth while remaining competitive in an increasingly fierce market.

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“People look primarily at the instances where things go wrong for players; of course, every single one of those is one too many. But they don’t tend to look at the large number of people enjoying gambling.”

Holland Casino was one of the first operators out of the gate when the newly-minted market opened in 2021, and while they don’t have the position they occupied in those early days, the company’s online offering is healthy. When they launched online, Petra says “we were very well known for – and are very well known for – responsible gaming.

“That was the reason why we joined [online as well as land-based]. But we were a full brick-and-mortar company so it took us some time to prepare for that market. In the beginning, the market share was of course higher because you only had 10 operators and we had a very well-known brand name, but now the market is much bigger and you have operators more specialised in sports betting and things like that. We have dropped down a bit.”