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How to play Lucky Ducker
For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.
Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.
How to play Lucky Ducker
“You shouldn’t necessarily need 100 people and millions of euros of infrastructure to have a great idea and turn it into a successful slot,” Curwen says.
Lower barriers to entry could significantly widen the pool of potential game creators. Curwen sees opportunities not only for established and emerging studios, but for operators, suppliers, entrepreneurs and potentially entirely new entrants.
“The big change is that technology can increasingly provide the infrastructure,” he says. “The creator provides the idea. And I think that will make the industry much more interesting.”
How to play Lucky Ducker
This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.
“It’s not a dark alley,” he continues. “It’s a large operator that’s regulated in other places, so it’s not the risk for the player that sometimes is implied.”
With the central challenge of tax to compete with, operators face a test of whether they can maintain growth while remaining competitive in an increasingly fierce market.
