Possessed

About Possessed

The competition between prediction markets and sportsbooks is intense and there is some evidence that the former is encroaching on the latter’s customer base.

A survey by Fullstory, a behavioral data analytics company, says that amid the evolution of yes/no exchanges, 60% of bettors said prediction markets are altering how they use sportsbooks with 35% admitting that they’ve reduced usage of traditional sports wagering platforms as access to sports event contracts increased.

“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”

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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

About Possessed

“Our colleagues are our priority. We understand the concerns many will have. Impacted staff have been informed and are being fully supported throughout this process.”

Bet365 noted the impact of the UK government’s near doubling of the remote gaming duty, which increased from 21% to 40% on 1 April this year.

Additionally, a new remote betting duty is set to come in from April 2027, which will raise the effective tax rate on all sports betting products except horse racing from 15% to 25%.